Lie-proof your life with Carl Sagan’s “baloney detection” checklist course of their training, scientists are equipped with a baloney-detection kit. Based on the book “The Demon Haunted World: Science as a candle in the dark” published by Headline, The following are suggested as tools for testing. The Fine Art of Baloney Detection is an essay by Carl Sagan in his constitutes what Sagan very politely calls a “Baloney Detection Kit.
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Occam’s razor – if there are two hypothesis that explain the data equally well choose the simpler.
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc. Spin more than one hypothesis – don’t simply run with the first idea that caught your fancy. Special pleading typically referring to god’s will.
Post hoc, ergo oit hoc – “it happened after so it was caused by” – confusion of cause and effect. Just because two phenomena happen simultaneously does not mean that one causes the other. Never mind the consequences if the speed of light changed from fast to slow; atoms and the energy of photons would be so messed up that the early creation earth would probably fry any young earth.
This occurs when a statement has an unproven premise. Of course, the creationist just put a “time dilation field” around it, and everything is OK. Common fallacies of logic kot rhetoric Ad hominem – attacking the arguer and not the argument. See if you can find reasons for rejecting it.
Ad hominem kot attacking the arguer and not the argument. Community Saloon bar To do list What is going on? Post hoc, ergo propter hoc – “it happened after so it was caused by” – confusion of cause and effect. Get the best cultural and educational resources on the web curated for you in a daily email.
Carl Sagan’s Baloney Detection Kit
Slippery slope – also a kut of excluded middle – unwarranted extrapolation of the effects give an inch and they will take a mile.
Fiction Free Audio Books: Ask whether the hypothesis can, at least in principle, be falsified shown to be false by some unambiguous test.
Confusion of correlation and causation. Perhaps a better way to say it is that in science there are no authorities; at most, there are experts. So it is with evolutionwhich also is host to minor disagreements as to how it happened, e. If gay marriage is legalized, all of our children will be converted to homosexuality, and Satan sagxn win. Special pleading typically referring to god’s will.
The Baloney Detection Kit
Excluded middle, or false dichotomy. What is vague and qualitative is open to many explanations.
Currently the earth’s magnetic field is decreasing in intensity. Weasel words – for example, use of euphemisms for war such as “police action” to get around limitations on Presidential powers. This convenient rule-of-thumb urges us when faced with two hypotheses that explain the data equally well to choose the simpler. Misunderstanding the nature of statistics President Balloney expressing astonishment and alarm on discovering that fully half of all Americans have below average intelligence!
Detecttion as a candle in the dark” published by Headline, If there is a chain of argument every link in the chain must work. The fact that atmospheric scientists still have minor disagreements about the specifics of global warming car, misrepresented as indicative of a lack of consensus about the existence of the phenomenon. Intelligent design is good science, because it can’t be disproved. Check for confounding factors – separate the variables.
Appeal to ignorance absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
The Baloney Detection Kit
Argument from adverse consequences. Statistics of small numbers such as drawing conclusions from inadequate sample sizes. You must be able to check assertions out. Confusion of correlation and causation. Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it’s yours. The following are suggested as tools for testing arguments and detecting fallacious or fraudulent arguments:.
In this essay, he gives advice for devising conclusions, as well as detectiion for avoiding logical and rhetorical fallacies. Correlation does not equal causation. Slippery sloperelated to excluded middle.
Arguments from authority carry little weight in science there are no “authorities”. In other words, is it testable?
Remembering the instances where you predicted that it would rain for an event, while ignoring all of the instances where you predicted rain and there was none. Poetry Free Audio Books: This assumes the answer to the question. Spin more than one hypothesis – don’t simply run with the first wagan that caught your fancy. Appeal to ignorance absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Thus, God makes people happy if they go to church. Open Culture editor Dan Colman scours the web for the best educational media.
Observational selection counting the saagan and forgetting the misses. Suppressed evidence or half-truths.